UEFA has approved a significant restructuring of European qualifying for both the World Cup and the European Championship, under which the continent's stronger nations will no longer face heavily one-sided fixtures against the smallest footballing states. The changes take effect from the 2028-29 season and will apply to qualification for the 2030 World Cup and beyond.
Under the new format, European qualifying will be organised across two tiers, with nations placed according to their most recent Nations League rankings. The practical consequence is that sides such as San Marino, Gibraltar and Andorra — long the targets of cricket-score defeats in qualifying campaigns — will compete separately from the top tier of European football. Larger nations will instead face opponents of comparable standing throughout the qualifying process.
The structure will also incorporate elements of the Swiss system, the format UEFA introduced into its club competitions over the past two seasons, in which teams play within larger pools and accumulate results against a varied set of opponents rather than a fixed group. The blend of tiered placement and Swiss-system mechanics is designed to produce more competitive and meaningful fixtures across the entire qualifying calendar, not merely at the top end.
For Wales and other nations who occupy the middle ground of European football, the implications deserve careful attention. The tiered model promises an end to the kind of qualifying evenings that generate little tactical value and scant public interest, but it also concentrates the competition in a way that may offer fewer straightforward opportunities to bank points early in a campaign. How the bands are drawn, and precisely which Nations League cycles determine placement, will shape the competitive landscape for the best part of a decade.
The announcement brings formal confirmation to a process that had been signalled in outline for some months. With Euro 2028 as the effective watershed, national associations now have time to absorb what the changes mean in practice. The full procedural detail — group sizes, promotion and relegation between tiers, and the precise play-off arrangements — will determine whether the ambition of more competitive qualifying translates into reality when the first fixtures under the new system kick off.